Data
Caribbean hurricane odds by island
How often hurricanes have passed near 21 Caribbean destinations in 60 years of NOAA storm tracks.
Updated 4 Nov 2026 · Storms through 2025 · License: CC BY 4.0
All islands in September
| Island | Hurricanes since 1966 | Major hurricanes | Years between hurricanes | Years with a hurricane this month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aruba | 1 | 1 | 60 | 1 of 60 |
| Curacao | 1 | 0 | 60 | 1 of 60 |
| Grenada | 3 | 2 | 20 | 1 of 60 |
| Barbados | 4 | 1 | 15 | 1 of 60 |
| Jamaica (Montego Bay) | 4 | 4 | 15 | 1 of 60 |
| Mustique | 4 | 2 | 15 | 0 of 60 |
| St. Lucia | 4 | 1 | 15 | 0 of 60 |
| Bahamas (Nassau) | 6 | 2 | 10 | 1 of 60 |
| Punta Cana | 6 | 2 | 10 | 5 of 60 |
| Bahamas (Exuma) | 7 | 1 | 8.6 | 1 of 60 |
| Dorado | 8 | 5 | 7.5 | 5 of 60 |
| Turks and Caicos (Providenciales) | 8 | 5 | 7.5 | 4 of 60 |
| Bahamas (Harbour Island) | 9 | 3 | 6.7 | 2 of 60 |
| Anguilla | 10 | 5 | 6 | 2 of 60 |
| Antigua | 10 | 4 | 6 | 4 of 60 |
| Grand Cayman | 10 | 5 | 6 | 2 of 60 |
| St. Barts | 10 | 5 | 6 | 3 of 60 |
| Tulum | 10 | 5 | 6 | 2 of 60 |
| St. John | 11 | 6 | 5.5 | 4 of 60 |
| St. Martin | 11 | 6 | 5.5 | 3 of 60 |
| Virgin Gorda | 12 | 5 | 5 | 4 of 60 |
A hurricane counts when its center passes within 58 miles (93 km) with hurricane winds. Major means 111 mph or more inside that circle.
St. Barts through the year
Storms within 58 miles, week by week
Peak week: 5.0% of years
HurricaneAny named storm
Years with a hurricane, by month
Peak: 3 of 60 years
Use these numbers
Quote it
Since 1966, a hurricane has passed within 58 miles of Aruba once and of Curacao once, against 10 times for St. Barts and 12 times for Virgin Gorda, according to Gladori’s analysis of NOAA storm tracks.
Full citation:
Gladori, Caribbean hurricane odds by island (2026), https://gladori.com/data/caribbean-hurricane-odds/. Updated 4 Nov 2026. Storm data: NOAA HURDAT2, 1966 to 2025.
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Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0. Each file carries its sources in the first lines.
Questions about hurricane odds
Which Caribbean islands are outside the hurricane belt?
No island is fully outside it, but the far south comes close. Aruba and Curacao each had 1 hurricane within 58 miles since 1966, and Grenada had 3. The last one for both Aruba and Curacao was Felix in September 2007.
When is hurricane season in the Caribbean?
The Atlantic season runs from June 1 to November 30. At most islands in this table, the busiest weeks fall between mid-August and late September. The weekly chart shows it for each island.
Which Caribbean island gets the most hurricanes?
Of these 21 destinations, Virgin Gorda has the highest count, with 12 since 1966. Most of the northeast Caribbean sits close behind it, at 10 or 11.
Is this a forecast?
No. It is a record of what happened. For a storm on the way, follow the National Hurricane Center. Our storm history cards show the record of each island near an active storm.
Method and limits
- Storm data is NOAA’s HURDAT2 best-track file. We use 1966 to 2025 because satellites start in the mid-1960s, and earlier decades miss storms at sea.
- Distance is 58 miles (50 nautical miles, 93 km) from one point on each island, the radius the National Hurricane Center uses for its return periods. A long island like Jamaica can differ along its coast, so that row says Montego Bay.
- Tracks are interpolated every 15 minutes between six-hour fixes. A storm counts once per island, and as a hurricane if winds reached 74 mph inside the circle.
- The weekly chart shows the share of years with a pass in that week, averaged over three weeks, because a single week holds too few events.
- A storm counts in the month of its closest approach, and a year counts once per month even with two storms.
Sources
| Source | What it gives | Terms |
|---|---|---|
| NOAA HURDAT2 | Storm tracks and winds, 1851 to 2025 | US government work in the public domain. Cite Landsea and Franklin (2013), Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 3576-3592. |